The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its first 20-year passenger growth forecast, projecting that passenger numbers are expected to reach 7.3 billion by 2034. That represents a 4.1 per cent average annual growth in demand for air connectivity that will result in more than a doubling of the 3.3 billion passengers expected to travel this year.
Analysis of the 10 largest air passenger markets defined by traffic to, from and within for the period 2014-2034 revealed that India, which is currently the ninth largest market, will see a total of 367 million passengers by 2034, an extra 266 million annual passengers compared to today. It will overtake the United Kingdom (148 million extra passengers, total market 337 million) to become the third largest market around 2031. The report, the first from the new IATA Passenger Forecasting service, produced in association with Tourism Economics, analyses passenger flows across 4,000 country pairs for the next 20 years, forecasting passenger numbers by way of three key demand drivers: living standards, population and demographics, and price and availability.
“It is an exciting prospect to think that in the next 20 years more than twice as many passengers as today will have the chance to fly. At present, aviation helps sustain 58 million jobs and US$2.4 trillion in economic activity. In 20 years’ time we can expect aviation to be supporting around 105 million jobs and $6 trillion in GDP,” said Tony Tyler, Director General and CEO, IATA.